13%. 26-89, 26-90 and 26-91 lose heavily. 26-92 loses by a nose. Potter retains 70% popularity despite the outcome. Sam Adams responds by having his open heart surgery broadcast on the evening news.

Jeez, Dave, I just asked for your turnout projection. Your crystal ball is on overdrive.

21%.

Curiously-Strong Mayor loses by the largest margin, PDC budget reform passes barly, civil service and Charter review lose barely.

Afterwards, Major Tom announces that the loss is a vote for changing Portland's form of government.

I dunno, what does Jesus think?

http://jesuschristscoolblog.blogspot.com

19%, although it would be nice if it were higher.

32%

29.7%, because that's how I like my women.

Whoa, Susan--that's the highest guess I've heard here or anywhere. Still, you--former Portland elections officer--are in a position to know.

15.3%, but it makes me cry a little on the inside to guess such a low number.

While I was doing research for my guess, I noticed that Multnomah County has 33,000 less registered voters than we did in May 2005. What is that about??

no one in particular:

the I tax??

the I tax??

Oh, wait, I want to guess at the answer to that question too. I think it was that the city was flooded by freeloading, scofflawing bicyclists, and the city accommodated them, pushing out all those regular hard-working, registered voters.

Oh, and the tram.

Seriously, I think it would be interesting to see if Clackamas and Washington counties have had an increase in registered voters in the same time period. C'mon you journalistic sleuths....

Considering that $2 million budget bump was all from unexpected business license fees, it doesn't look like businesses are fleeing the city, Dave. 'Cept yours.

Dave: Clackamas is down 9000 voters in the same time period (4.3% shrinkage vs. Multnomah County's 8.0%).

Washington County has a shockingly ugly elections website that doesn't show ballot returns (and, thus, current registered voters) for the current election, only past elections.

But Dave, do you honestly believe that Multnomah County's population has shrunk in the past two years... it just doesn't seem possible. I imagine there's something else at work, like maybe a stronger drive by the Secretary of State to clear dead/moved people off the rolls? Or something? I dunno.

p.s. using today's data, my hacky prediction now says 16.6%.

(I'm looking at the May 2005 returns, which showed that 56.6% of the total ballots were recieved by the Tuesday before the election... then applying that number to the total returns as of today.)

I'm sure cleaning up the rolls could be part of it. And long overdue.

It was pretty funny during the campaign last year. I had a whole lot of people, primarily business owners, who came to events and made contributions. Their most common comment was "I sure wish I could vote for you, but I don't live in Portland".
Seems like most of the small business owners who have businesses in Portland actually live in West Linn, or Lake Oswego, or Vancouver.

I dunno. Maybe Mult Co. is losing families because of jobs or schools, but gaining younger folks who aren't as apt to register and vote. Maybe everybody is moving over to Vancouver. Maybe people just quit voting because they don't care, or don't think they can make a difference.

I just decided that today at 6pm is the cutoff for this. If you want to revise your answer, as no one in particular just did, I'll take the second answer. That is all.

Okay, I will change mine. Sam Adams has his open heart AND kidney transplant on the evening news.

okay - 17.76%

but i would still really prefer to know what he says:
http://jesuschristscoolblog.blogspot.com