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Monday, August 20, 2007

Politics Good News For Measures 49 And 50, Mixed News For Presidential Candidates

Posted by Scott Moore on Mon, Aug 20 at 3:20 PM

Pollster Mike Riley has jut released a pretty mixed bag of survey results (pdf), ranging from ballot measures to presidential primaries to the race for Senate.

There’s good news for Sen. John Edwards; since March of this year, his rating has gone from 8 percent to 17 percent, and is the only Democratic candidate to have gained ground, according to the survey 406 likely voters. It shouldn’t be a huge surprise—he’s the only Democratic candidate to have visited the state. The bad news, he’s still in third place, falling behind Hillary Rodham Clinton (26 percent, down from 31 percent in March) and Barack Obama (18 percent, down from 21 percent).

johnedwardsoregonweb.JPG

In the Republican race, the biggest winner was… Undecided, which gained a whopping 10 percentage points, from 25 percent to 35 percent since March. Rudy Giuliani dropped to 16 percent from 33 percent and John McCain dropped to 8 percent from 20, all but sealing his campaign’s coffin. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney gained traction, from 0 to 11 percent and 5 to 15 percent, respectively.

Measure 49, which would reform 2004’s land-use-law-gutting Measure 37, was up 58 to 12, with 30 percent undecided. Measure 50, which imposes an 84.5 cent tax on every pack of cigarettes to pay for children’s health care, is up 53 to 28, with 19 percent undecided. If these numbers are indeed an accurate portrayal of likely voter positions, and if the numbers hold, these two are likely to pass even if all the undecideds switch to No votes.

The news was less good for House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who’s running against Gordon Smith for Senate. Merkley picked up 19 percent of the likely vote and Smith got 38 percent. For whatever reason, Riley through possible independent candidate John Frohnmayer into the mix, who got 7 percent. The undecideds were at 35 percent, including 47 percent of non-affiliated or independent voters.

Update: Here’s Democratic Party of Oregon Chair Meredith Wood Smith’s take on the poll numbers:

“It’s stunning for a 10-year incumbent to be in an almost statistical dead heat with Undecided. Clearly, Oregonians will not support a U.S. Senator who votes with President Bush 90 percent of the time and has been called out by Oregon’s media for fudging the facts and breaking Oregonians’ trust.”

Comments

How do you get bad news for Merkley out of that? Smith gets no love from Republicans and is at 38% despite facing a candidate no one knows who announced a week before the poll was conducted. Only 34% of Dems support Merkley, which must be almost exclusively a name recognition issue. Smith should have a big lead, but is on life support. His support in Southern Oregon is 34%. NOT good.

Yow, Jeff. I said the news was "less good." Compared to the over-50 numbers for the two ballot measures (the paragraph that preceded "less good"), Merkley's numbers are "less good." Cool your heels, dude!

Not if R.J. Reynolds and Philip Morris and their armies of lobbyists have their ways.

Pretty soon, the 4 and change cents a butt tax to fund children's health care will be the most ONEROUS TAX EVAR! They'll spin it as a way to tax poor people, yadda yadda yadda....

Hey Mr. Moore,

Apparently you missed the part where the Democratic Presidential hopeful from Ohio, Mr. Dennis J. Kucinich, came to Portland and spoke at Benson Highschool on July 1st as documented by Mercury arch nemeses, Indymedia, here and by Oregonpeaceworks on their calendar of events.

So, the Senator John Edwards is not, in fact, the only Democratic candidate to have visited Oregon in 2007.

Sorry, wasn't trying to be harsh, though I see in re-reading the comment that it came off that way. Not a critique so much as shock over how week the numbers look for Smith.

Sorry!

Err "weak."

The ballot numbers are decent for 49, but dangerously low if you favor M50--it's about four points from the traditional death knell for ballot measures in initial polling.

The only thing you can read into the Senate numbers is that Smith is in trouble. The candidate selection is useless.

Also, Riley's screening methods for "likely voters" stinks.

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