It’s Super Tuesday, and Oregon still doesn’t get to weigh in on the presidential race. Fortunately, it’s become increasingly clear that Super Tuesday isn’t going to decisively crown the Democratic nominee. Indeed, according to MSNBC, “neither Democratic campaign expects the delegate split to be greater than 100”—meaning Clinton and Obama will likely both walk away with a similar number of delegates tonight (in the 800 range, each).

Hell, at that rate, maybe we’ll get to have our say in Oregon. According to Clinton strategist Howard Wolfson:

The Democratic nomination will be “possibly decided in March, possibly decided in April, possibly not decided until the convention,” Wolfson said, expressing the extent of the turnabout the campaign has made from its initial belief that Clinton would secure the nod on Super Tuesday.

The current theory is that the superdelegates—not Super Tuesday—will choose a nominee. From Open Left:

It can no longer be avoided: super delegates will determine the Democratic Presidential nominee this year. Here is the current situation:

* With Michigan and Florida removed from the equation, 2,025 delegates are required to win the nomination, and there are 3,253 pledged delegates.
* To date, four states with a combined 137 pledged delegates have held nominating contests.
* Currently, Barack Obama is projected with 63 pledged delegates, and Hillary Clinton is projected with 48 (source).
* On Super Tuesday, 22 states and a couple territories with a combined 1,688 pledged delegates will hold nominating contests.

From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75). That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.

Oregon has 12 superdelegates, and only three have pledged support for a particular candidate (our governor and Rep Darlene Hooley both endorsed Clinton, while Rep Earl Blumenauer announced his support for Obama on February 1). Five additional superdelegates—officials with Oregon’s Democratic Party—have indicated they’ll remain neutral until after our state’s primary. And the other four—Ron Wyden, David Wu, Peter DeFazio and Bill Bradbury—have been quiet so far.

Maybe some of those superdelegates will be at tonight’s Super Tuesday parties, and you can bend their ear (hey, calls from the two campaigns haven’t resulted in endorsements yet, but maybe you’re more convincing!).

The Democratic Party of Oregon is hosting 20 parties around the state. In Portland, the hobnobbing and results watching will go down at the Tiffany Center (1410 SW Morrison) from 6 to 10 pm. That party’s $50, but there’s free wine and beer once you’re in the door, and raffle items like a trip to the Democratic Convention.