The council’s in the middle of heated debate over whether or not to adopt the Citizens Campaign Commission recommendation to give Jim Middaugh $150,000 if he heads into a runoff in the race for Erik Sten’s old seat. Nick Fish is the privately funded candidate who would likely head to a runoff as well. (Sure, both candidate claim they’ll win outright in May, but neither has ever snagged more than 50 percent in a citywide election). Whatever the council decides will have a big impact on the dynamics in the special election, determining how much Middaugh has at the outset, and how much Fish has to raise to be competitive.

Randy Leonard, who has endorsed Fish, has said he’ll be recusing himself from the vote, and Sten—Middaugh’s boss until recently—is gone. That leaves it up to Commissioners Sam Adams and Dan Saltzman, plus Mayor Potter.

Leonard, however, has done most of the talking, grilling the CCC reps who are here explaining their long deliberative process (they did a great job, from what I observed, quizzing multiple campaign consultants, working the math from every angle, discussing, taking public testimony, discussing some more, etc). He’s nit picking bits of their report, which took into consideration the input of Liz Kaufman, campaign consultant, but combined her advice with others—including an anonymous consultant—on things like projected voter turnout. (It might be low, CCC chair Leslie Hildula conceded, but that means the candidate needs cash to get their message out to summer-minded voters before a July election.)

HOLD UP! Mayoral candidate James B. Lee is testifying, and has called for Auditor Gary Blackmer’s resignation! “This is man who seems to shovel out our public funds with only marginal concerns [for the taxpayers]… I think Mr. Blackmer has done an immense amount of harm to the principle of public financing,” he says, citing Emilie Boyles as one example.

Saltzman is commenting, and lending his support to Blackmer. “I believe the figure of 100,000 is sufficient to get a message out… we all know we’re going to have low turnout,” he says, and says rates for media buys are going to be a deal, since no one else is running. He’s moving to replace $150,000 with $100,000 throughout the ordinance Blackmer submitted, based on the CCC’s recommendation.

More deliberation after the cut!

Blackmer is up, at Adams' behest, addressing Saltzman's concerns. The CCC did consider that media will be cheaper in June and July, but Kaufman also pointed out that given the time frame, radio and TV might not be as effective as mail.

Saltzman says he thought $66,666—Leonard and Potter's original recommendation—was too low, but if Kaufman suggested $100,000, that sounded good to him.

Now the CCC members are back up, explaining what $100,000 would mean. Hildula acknowledges that it's probably cheaper to do media advertising, but the cost of mailings would remain the same. "As a result, $100,000 wasn't enough," she says. They looked at the majority of data, the majority of past races, the majority of opinions, which were more in the range of $130,000 to $160,000 being the right amount.

Leonard, who has reiterated that he'll be recusing himself, is grilling Hildula again, pointing out that they agree with Kaufman on everything except her voter turn out prediction—and the CCC used a higher voter turnout prediction to arrive at their figure.

Peter Forsyth of the CCC is saying they looked at voter turnout in special elections, and found one as high as 64 percent—and compared that to Kaufman's 30 percent prediction.

Leonard: "With all due respect, you're saying you substituted your judgment for Liz Kaufman's... and Liz Kaufman is widely known as the best in the business. It feels like you didn't like the amount, so you came up with another amount."

The also looked at trends and data from past campaigns, from Kevin Neely of C&E Systems, which does campaign accounting, Hildula points out.

Okay, back to deliberations. Saltzman's $100,000 recommendation is still on the floor.

Adams says when they sent it to the CCC, he said he'd give their recommendation great weight. But he says it sounds like the others voting on this don't support the $150,000 recommendation—though Potter hasn't spoken up—so they should explore a compromise figure.

"Since we have to come up with something we all agree with, we get to see democracy in action," Adams says. Potter, finally speaking up, points out that Adams referred to it as "sausage making" a few minutes ago when he called the CCC back up. Adams suggests $130,000.

Leonard—still not voting—is demanding methodology. Adams says it's based on the CCC's recommendation. Leonard shoots back that their report included an anonymous source and Kaufman.

Saltzman, going auction style, says considering the matching funds, how about $115,000?

"You want the undercoat?" Leonard says. Everyone's confused. "It sounds like you're buying a used car here."

Saltzman amends his proposal to $115,000. Adams and Saltzman vote for it.

Potter: I have to say, you folks are watching something like democracy in action, but it is more akin to making sausage... the current recommendation is high," he says, but only applies to this special election. He wants the CCC to "look very seriously at a formula" that levels the field between the candidates in future special elections. And he votes for the $115,000.

Out in the hall, Middaugh—who arrived minutes ago from the Oregonian's endorsement interview—says he "affirms the council decision." He's challenged Fish to cap his fundraising at the amount the council determines, and he says his campaign can be competitive with $115,000. "We have a ton of grassroots support and boots on the ground," he says, arguing that his base is "more motivated."

If Fish raises more than $115,000, Middaugh is eligible for matching funds (I believe to a cap of 150 % of $115K). With a short special election, most of it falls under a seven-day campaign finance reporting schedule, which means the turnaround time for matching funds is just over a week from when a privately financed candidate raises or spends additional cash.