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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Politics What? Me Worry?

Posted by Eli Sanders on Thu, Sep 25, 2008 at 2:45 PM

I am the last person in the world to begrudge people their election anxiety, but looking at some of the electoral college vote prediction sites that I frequent, I don't see as much cause for Obama-related alarm. At least not today.

Here's the current Real Clear Politics map. It's close, but Obama wins:

ElectoralMap9-25.jpg

FiveThirtyEight and ElectoralVote agree: If the election were held today, Obama would be the victor (and, according to their models, by an even larger margin than RCP is showing).

The key phrase, of course, being: If the election were held today. Which it will not be.

 

Comments (5) RSS

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1
But how many of those individual state polls were done recently, after the "financial crisis"?
Posted by Bob R. on September 25, 2008 at 3:16 PM · Report
2
Also, how many of those states had their victor decided within the margin of error? If it's even one or two (and I'm sure it is) then the result is essentially meaningless.
Posted by no one in particular on September 25, 2008 at 3:24 PM · Report
3
Y'know, unless they steal it again, like they did the last two times, or there's another conveniently timed terrorist attack, resulting in full martial law this time...Oh, I could go on...
Posted by rich bachelor on September 25, 2008 at 4:15 PM · Report
4
I love whenever the republican party is almost even with the democratic party, this "doesnt' matter", but when the democratic party is winning it, it's a huge deal to them.

Anyway, who cares until people actually vote.
People are going to bitch endlessly either way. fuck it.
Posted by maxcolby on September 26, 2008 at 5:02 PM · Report
5
I usually follow election08.cs.uiuc.edu instead of fivethirtyeight. I feel that election08.cs.uiuc.edu is easier to follow, yet their prediction is pretty similar (with obama winning currently)
Posted by iwotic on September 29, 2008 at 3:45 PM · Report

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