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Monday, August 10, 2009
News / Politics BREAKING: Recall Needs 786 Signatures a Day
Posted by Rachael the Unpaid News Intern on Mon, Aug 10, 2009 at 4:49 PM
We've just received new signature numbers from the Sam Adams recall campaign. Having gathered just 6,000 signatures in 34 days, the campaign to recall Sam Adams faces quite a challenge. With another 56 days to go, they’ll have to gather 786 signatures per day in order to meet their goal of 50,000. So far, they've been operating with an average of 176 signatures a day, according to our calculations. They now need to increase their rate of collection by a whopping 345 percent to meet the deadline.
The recall filed with the city auditor's office on July 7, and began collecting signatures on July 8. That makes 34 days gathering signatures. 6,000 divided by 34=176. With just 56 days left until the October 5 deadline, the campaign needs to gather a further 44,000 signatures to succeed. 44,000 divided by 56=786 signatures, or 785.7 a day, to be precise.
The recall technically needs just 32,000 signatures to force a recall election, but Jasun Wurster, head of the campaign, says he wants to get 50,000 to make allowances for any potential invalid signatures.
So when do the prospects for the recall start to look bleak? “Never,” says Wurster. “It’s going to be close, but we’re seeing exponential growth as new volunteers, 10-15, are trained each day.” Yet, he recognizes “people will be very cynical of the numbers this first month.”
Check out this week's Mercury for more on the progress of the campaign.
-Rachael Marcus
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I guess all that time spent at Sunday Parkways didn't do the trick.
Sweepstake: which made-up excuse will the anti-Sam trolls reply to this news with first?
A) All the other 400,000 people in the city of Portland are scared of retribution from Sam
B) All the other 400,000 people in the city of Portland have been personally threatened by Sam's supporters
C) All the other 400,000 people in the city of Portland have signed, but Sam's supporters deliberately spoiled the signature sheets so they'd be invalid
D) All the other 400,000 people in the city of Portland want to sign but can't find a signature sheet, due to them being hidden / a media conspiracy / anything except organizational ineptitude
E) All the other 400,000 people in the city of Portland don't care and thing the matter is too minor for a recall and should be laid to rest
My money's on any except E.
So are you going to credit me now or later with the idea for this post?
It's normally considered good netiquette to credit a commenter who came up with the idea you then blog on.
Hmmm....let's see: How does never work for you?
Hmmm on July 22nd I wrote:
"So doing the math. Taking him at his word that he has 2,000 signatures (sig gathering campaigns always overestimate) that means he has been collecting at a clip of about 133 signatures a day.
75 days for 48,000 signatures = 640 signatures a day.
Quite a leap, but doable. But here is the problem - every day he fails to hit 640 signatures from here on out his job gets exponentially more difficult.
Not surprised that WWeek has jumped on the bandwagon, their circulation depends on a recall.
Also still puzzled by anyone who thinks that Potter somehow lends legitimacy to this whole thing. One of the worst mayors in Portland's history supports recalling his successor who he didn't support in the first place. Why is this news? And why does this help?"
And then July 29 I wrote:
"would just like to point out my comment on this from several weeks ago when they had 2,000 signatures. Then they needed to be gathering at a rate of 675 a day to make it to 50K. 14 days later they are at 4,000. That is 142 signatures a day.
See how this works folks? Every day on a signature gathering campaign you don't hit your target you fall exponentially farther behind.
IF these numbers are true they are fucked and I suspect Jason's excuse making/plea for attention gambit today belies that.".
Normal behavior for the Mercury I guess and for the record I have no problem with using my numbers/posts just normal bloggers attribute but as we can tell Matt Davis has a wee problem with me.
During the hot week, those troll....I mean good citizens of the anti-Sam campaign surrounded that one hardware store on Stark and 11th that kept being featured on the news for having a few air conditioners left for sale. I got to ignor...I mean "engage in the civil process with" them as I needed something non-AC related from that very store. Their hyper-reactive strategy seemed brilliant. Unfortunately, the heat subsided. Hopefully they're tracking other extreme weather conditions that may gather a crowd somewhere. Also perhaps car crashes, train wrecks, fires. Maybe they should wait for car backups and bridges to go up downtown and SPRING forth from behind cement girders (watch for them BIG boats, volunteers)!
If all else fails, get more orange floor balloons!
For the record: Finnegan, aka Timbers fan Jeremy Wright is a genius and entirely responsible for the contents of my whole brain, the Mercury's news section, and all efforts at journalism generally on the planet. In perpetuity. For the rest of time.
Thanks, Jeremy, for your unflagging commitment to truth. I love you.
Get over yourself, Finnegan. You & Matt just happen to be witnesses to the same train-wreck.
The only difference is he gets paid by this publication for reporting and you don't.
Additionally, I would like to take credit for math. I will accept your credits now, or at an even incremental rate to be determined later. You can calculate it yourself, but I'll be wanting the credit for that too.
Are they actually training "10-15" volunteers a day? And how many of those go out more than once, twice? How many people who started with the "campaign" are still on it? Do they have enough balloons for everyone?
Matt the only way I would ever be responsible for your brain is if you actually grew some brain cells. Then I might consider it, until then Ill pass on the offer thank you very much.
I'm not saying I invented math just saying if you take a look at what I wrote 3 weeks ago:
"So doing the math. Taking him at his word that he has 2,000 signatures (sig gathering campaigns always overestimate) that means he has been collecting at a clip of about 133 signatures a day.75 days for 48,000 signatures = 640 signatures a day.Quite a leap, but doable. But here is the problem - every day he fails to hit 640 signatures from here on out his job gets exponentially more difficult"
There are two more posts of mine between then and now with the exact same tenor. Now its possible, just possible that Matt/Rachel came up with the exact same post/idea after it appeared on their site but ill let others make up their own mind on that.
And Matt while I like that you refer to me as a Timbers fan and I am quite proud of that fact, in this context I think you should refer to me as "Jeremy Wright the guy who has qualified three state wide ballot measures including one with all volunteers and who actually knows what the fuck he is talking about on this subject as opposed to myself who just randomly pulls shit out of my arse" in the future. Kay sweetums?
Won't someone think of the balloons?!
Yeah I thought this was Rachels post so why is Matt commenting? Shouldn't he be blogging about doing the High Jump off High Rocks or something? He is getting more self absorbed then B.O and Finn, sheesh.
Matt, did you seriously just do the whole "I'm going to call you out by your REAL NAME on the internet!!!" thing?
Matt Davis wouldn't know what High Rocks is if it bit him in the ass.
Jeremy Wright needs a job. Anyone need a hack to write some weak political spin? It's causing my sphincter to widen watching him whore himself in the Mercury comments section.
Finnegan's identity as Jeremy Wright is relevant considering that he self-identifies as a political consultant. I think any potential employer will Google him now, and if they have any brains, will have to turn him down for his behavior. I sure as hell won't support a politician or a cause that hires him.
Jasun Wurster leading the recall campaign = FAIL
Crouching tiger, hidden dragon, and Obama is president, something Im sure you miserable cynics never contemplated.
posted from germany en route to prague, where i will hug and sprawl over kafkas gravestone, and be amongst thinkers, who drink and talk politics and get run over by tanks, and know a fuck-up when they see one. (referring to our illustrious mayor, sires)
You have the drinking part down, apparently.
Regular scandals of sexual intrigue (whores, hookers, mistresses, houseboys, escorts, paramours)? Yes, European politicians will have none of it.
Fin,
Could you post the post you posted again just one more time? I really want to get in there and compare the two with my monocle on. Thx.
I don't think that Jasun understands the concept of exponential growth. Training a linear number of new volunteers each day will not product exponential growth in the number of signatures gathered...
Wow, I cant believe someone else actually thought the recall effort was full of fail. I thought I was the only one. I'm sure, however, that I thought of it FIRST. I thought of it before any of you pansies ever even voted.
-thumps chest-
-strokes e-peen-
Here's a question: if all voting-aged Portland residents were simply asked yes or no whether they would support Adams being recalled (you know, like one of them election thingies), what percentage of the general voting public do you think would vote yes he should be booted?
My guess is it's under 20%.
Can we get a detailed count on the number of signatures collected/turned in/total/whatever each day so far? Or even, a few "on X day he had Y signatures"? I'd look for that myself, but I'm feeling lazy...
But if someone gets me that numbers I'd love to run some statistics on them...
List of things things I invented relevant to the topic for which I would like credit:
1) Growth of Brain Cells
2) Spelling Jason with a U instead of an O.
3) Orange Floor Balloon
4) German Sausage
Leslie and The Badgers
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