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Monday, May 17, 2010

GOP Gov Candidates in Surprise Dead Heat

Posted by Stefan Kamph on Mon, May 17, 2010 at 12:29 PM

The primary election for Oregon's next governor ends tomorrow night—if you haven't voted yet, find ballot drop sites here.

For weeks, former Pixelworks CEO Allen Alley has been trailing former NBA player Chris Dudley in the Republican primary polls. As we reported when we endorsed Alley, Dudley's been raking in money and running a big TV ad campaign.

But a new poll released last Friday shows that Alley has gained on Dudley for a statistical tie: they're separated by less than half of the poll's margin of error.

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Alley's campaign manager Tim Maloney says the new numbers haven't affected their campaign strategy: "We have carefully targeted our likely voters, and they're turning out in higher numbers." Who are those voters? "They tend to be a little bit older," Maloney says. To reach them, the Alley campaign has relied heavily on mailers and newspaper ads.

The polling agency, Lindholm Company, notes that lower voter turnout will favor Alley. Many of his older, newspaper-reading supporters have been voting reliably for years.

Speaking of voter turnout, as of this morning, 19.86% of Multnomah County ballots had been returned. In the 2006 gubernatorial primary, 23% of votes were in with a day left to go, and around a third of all votes came in on Election Day.

Update 12:55 pm: Dudley campaign manager Britney Bramell says, “Our strategy is and will remain the same... While we are encouraged by the outpouring of support we have received throughout the state, we aren’t taking anything for granted." See you at the parties!

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