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Monday, May 17, 2010

Predicting The Election

Posted by Matt Davis on Mon, May 17, 2010 at 2:27 PM

We'll have Blogtown lighting up like an immolating monk tomorrow evening, with coverage of all the results and election night parties from our news team: Matt Davis, Steve Humphrey, Stefan Kamph, Sarah Mirk, and Angela Webber. Sass-minded Arts & Web Editor Alison Hallett and triply sass-minded Copy Chief Courtney Ferguson will also be reporting for us, along with interns Noah Dunham and January Vawter.

Before that, I'm going to offer my sincere assessment of what's going to happen tomorrow night. If I were a betting man, and I really try not to be, I'd lay $50 on the following. But not with you:

•City Commissioner Dan Saltzman will go to a runoff with rival Jesse Cornett. Mary Volm and the broad field of other candidates, including Spencer Burton, Ed Garren and Rudy Soto, will successfully keep the former police commissioner from walking into yet another term, with Cornett getting just over 30% of the vote, compared to Saltzman on 45-48%. It won't be a glorious night for Cornett, but he'll be relieved to have proven himself in this early round. Now, a tough slog for the vote in November, and Cornett will need to keep the pressure on.

•City Commissioner Nick Fish absolutely crushes it—making Saltzman's failure to get over the hump even more humiliating. Like, 96% of the vote? We think it's possible. We'll be watching Fish desperately trying to contain his victory whoops during his 8:15pm remarks (Why schedule them for 8:15, Nick? Why not 8:01? Or 7:59? Like, start your speech before the results are even in...) "There's still a lot of work to do," etcetera. Especially because Fish is sharing his party with Metro candidate Rex Burkholder, who may not even get through the primary...awkward...

•Democratic Gubernatorial candidate John Kitzhaber will walk it in the primary. Sorry, Bill Bradbury, but your polls haven't been improving. So much for idealism. So much for reelecting the same dude being a disappointment.

Allen Alley will come from behind and beat Chris Dudley in a surprise upset. I'm going out on a limb here, but I think undecided Republicans have seen through Dudley's terrible debate performances and want someone like Alley with experience in job creation. And an IQ that actually exceeds his height in inches. Dudley just makes Republican voters feel stupid, and they're not stupid. Not here in Oregon. The Wall Street Journal can suck it, by the way.

•County Commissioner race will go to a runoff between Karol Collymore and one other candidate—Loretta Smith, Maria Rubio or Chuck Currie. Possibly Tom Markgraf. We'd be amazed if Collymore walked this one, the field is simply too wide open and despite her best efforts, the other candidates have also been campaigning hard.

•Metro: There'll be a runoff between Tom Hughes and one of the others—probably Rex Burkholder. Hughes will win it easily in the fall. Hell, he might even win it in the primary. "Blah blah blah jobs." "Blah blah blah affable." Sorry, Bob Stacey. We love your CRC stance, but the region is broad and Hughes has the mass appeal.

In most cases I'd like to be wrong, but I'll probably be right. The one race I'm kinda unsure of is Saltzman's. Anything could happen, there. Anything at all...

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