The finalists for the National Book Award were recently announced. Surprise! I haven't read any of them. But that doesn't disqualify me from predicting winners. You can familiarize yourself wit the contenders here.

So let's begin with the fiction award. The nominees are...

Parrot and Olivier in America by Peter Carey
Lord of Misrule by Jaimy Gordon
Great House by Nicole Krauss
So Much for That by Lionel Shriver
I Hotel by Karen Tei Yamashita

These are all strong authors with solid bodies of work. Peter Carey jumps out as an established author who hasn't won a major American prize yet (though he has won the Booker prize twice). Nicole Krauss is a critical darling who could use the boost, but I'm going with I Hotel. It's historical, structurally interesting, and covers the late sixties through seventies era, second favorite era next to World War II. Weird fact, Samuel Delany is one of the fiction judges.

More predictions after the jump.

Nonfiction nominees are:

Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea by Barbara Demick
Cultures of War: Pearl Harbor, Hiroshima, 9-11, Iraq by John W. Dower
Just Kids by Patti Smith
Secret Historian: The Life and Times of Samuel Steward by Justin Spring
Every Man in this Village is a Liar: An Education in War by Megan K. Stack

All of these books sound fascinating! I'm actually half way through Secret Historian which is maybe the most interesting biography I've ever read. There's all the hot topics represented, gay, war, North Korea. But it would be cool to see Patti Smith win a National Book Award, and her's is the only books without a subtitle, so I'm going with her.

And finally there's the award for Poetry Young People's Literature.

Ship Breaker by Paolo Bacigalupi
Mockingbird by Kathryn Erskine
Dark Water by Laura McNeal
Lockdown by Walter Dean Myers
One Crazy Summer by Rita Williams-Garcia

Another hard call. I'd go for Bacigalupi because he's hot right now; his "biopunk" novel The Windup Girl won the Nebula and tied for the Hugo. (Awards come in streaks sometimes, Neil Gaiman won four major awards last year for The Graveyard Book.) So yes, I'd put your money on Ship Breaker.

And although it's a little ways off, I'm calling Freedom for the Pulitzer right now. They trended towards the obscure this year with Tinkers, but Franzen is the golden boy.