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Monday, November 1, 2010

It's Not Just Oregon: Other Tossup Races to Watch Tomorrow

Posted on Mon, Nov 1, 2010 at 5:29 PM

Mapping the battle for the U.S. Senate.
  • New York Times
  • Mapping the battle for the U.S. Senate.
So Oregon's gubernatorial race is in a dead-heat, but what about the ridiculously close and consequential races taking place in other parts of the country?

Let's start with the state whose election results are generally considered the bellwether for the U.S. as a whole: Ohio. Ohioans are also facing a close gubernatorial race, and Republican challenger John Kasich looks set to unseat Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland.

Another gubernatorial tossup to watch is Rhode Island's, where sweet-faced independent candidate Lincoln Chafee (a member of the decidedly "too conservative" Republican Party until 2007) looks poised to best both Democrat Frank Caprio and Republican John Robitaille. Polls show the race in a near three-way split.

The closet gubernatorial race in the nation, however, is taking place in Florida. Democrat Alex Sink and Republican Rick Scott and fighting tooth and nail for the former post of independent Charlie Crist, and polls show them in a deadlock even tighter than the one in Oregon.

Charlie Crist, interestingly enough, is abandoning his governorship in favor of a Senate seat. His platform revolves around "defeating Tea Party extremist Marco Rubio," but Rubio looks set to win the election by a 10-point margin.

More tossup election details below the cut.

Also up in the air: five Senate seats currently held by Democratics. The most surprising of these are the races in Nevada and Washington.

In Nevada, Tea Party-backed Republican Sharron Angle is challenging Democratic incumbent (and Senate Majority Leader!) Harry Reid. Polls show Angle in a good position to win, which is extremely embarrassing given that earlier this year she claimed Dearborn, Mich., and the nonexistent town of Frankford, Texas, are governed by Sharia law.

In Washington, popular Republican Dino Rossi is giving Democratic incumbent Patty Murray a run for her money—so much so, in fact, that President Obama, Michelle Obama and Vice President Biden have all stumped in Washington to rally Democratic support. Perhaps consequentially, polls show Murray is likely to retain her seat.

Wyoming, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan and Tennessee are all likely to elect Republican candidates to replace their current Democratic governors, while California and Connecticut are both likely to swing Democratic after Republican governorships. Of the 12 tossup governorships, seven are currently held by Democrats, three by Republicans and two by independents.

Arkansas, Wisconsin and Indiana are all looking likely to replace their Democratic senators with Republicans, but Oregon, California, Hawaii, Maryland, West Virginia, Delaware, New York, Vermont and Connecticut are all holding strong for the Democrats. Even so, the Democratic Senate majority could take a mighty punch in the gut tomorrow night, though it seems highly unlikely that the Republicans will win the 10 new seats necessary to take back control.

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