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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Obama Wins!

Posted by Goldy on Tue, Jan 3, 2012 at 9:59 AM


Over at HA, Darryl has shifted back into poll analysis mode, running all the available head-to-head state polls through a "Monte Carlo" analysis, and determining that President Barack Obama currently has an 88.6 percent chance of defeating Mitt Romney.

Poo-poo it if you want, but Darryl knows what he's doing. In his last pre-2008-election post, the widely followed Nate Silver projected a 349 to 189 electoral college victory for Obama, while Darryl projected Obama winning by a 364 to 174 margin. The actual result was 365 to 173. Advantage Darryl.

Of course, these analyses are based on polls that are only snapshots in time. Essentially, if the election were held today, Obama would stand an 88.6 percent chance of defeating Romney. A week from now, those numbers could change. So make of it what you will.

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