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Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Politics Factcheck: Is Oregon's Gas Tax Revenue Decreasing?

Posted by Sarah Mirk on Tue, Feb 7, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Hundreds of people packed into Portland State University's Lincoln Hall last night to hear the top three mayoral candidates discuss Portland's favorite nerdy topic: transportation. I moderated the debate along with PSU Dean Lawrence Wallack and the candidates spelled out their approaches to transit planning, making the city safer for biking and walking, how to create jobs around active transit and, of course, how to pay for it all. It was an interesting debate—at one point, Jefferson Smith used a metaphor from Where the Red Fern Grows to explain the problems with the CRC.* Definitely go read Jonathan Maus's extensive write-up over at BikePortland.org!

While most of the night was the convivial politeness you'd expect in a mayoral race between three Portland Democrats, there was a little bit of backbiting between Eileen Brady and Jefferson Smith.

Asked about new revenue sources to fund transportation, Smith said that the gas tax revenue is decreasing and offered some new ideas like variable parking rates and a street maintenance fee. When it was her turn, Brady sniped, "Jefferson, you need to do your homework..." and said that gas tax revenues were increasing (she also didn't offer any new revenue ideas, suggesting—as I understood it—that the city should just downsize PBOT).

So is gas tax revenue increasing or decreasing? To the wonky graphs!

So! Revenue from the gas tax was decreasing, but in 2009, the legislature passed a long-overdue gas tax increase. Because of that bump, the revenue from the gas tax has increased recently.

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However, gas tax revenue is below projections because Oregonians are driving less. Though he bungled the wording, Smith's point is valid: our transportation funding system is unsustainable as long as it relies primarily on the gas tax. As the city and state encourage people to drive less, the state collects less money and transportation planners essentially plan themselves out of jobs.


*The convoluted literary metaphor went, I think, like this:
CRC planners = Raccoons who love shiny things
Bloated bridge project = Very shiny thing stuck in the bottom of a stump
Steamrolling forward with current plan = Raccoons refusing to let go of shiny thing
Budget = Hunter who eventually comes along and kills the stubborn raccoon

 

Comments (6) RSS

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1
Jefferson is known to be pretty wonky, so the attack "Do your homework!" amused me more than anything. On a serious note, I'd rather associate myself with someone who inadvertently muddles his words than someone who intentionally fudges her facts.
Posted by HansPDX on February 7, 2012 at 4:50 PM · Report
2
Pretty backhanded ... he said the gas tax revenue was decreasing, and (if you look at from 2008 to now), Jefferson was wrong. If the question(s) had been "what is the long term outlook for how to fund our transportation infrastructure," it would have been a different question. The question was about what these candidates would do to prioritize and/or raise money to budget for transportation policies, presumably during their term.
Posted by jradmacher on February 7, 2012 at 4:51 PM · Report
3
I don't think it's fair to simply say "Jefferson was wrong." The revenue went up because of a tax increase, but that's not tied to behavior or trends endemic to our use of gasoline. Unless Brady is saying we're going to begin traveling more miles, and more miles per capita--revenue from gas taxes WILL decrease. The question was where will we find the money, and the answer is NOT "from the gas tax rate increase," which is what Brady seemed to suggest. I think Smith's response was more appropriate and showed a broader understanding of the dynamic at hand. It's surely not as if he doesn't recall raising the gas tax!
Posted by torridjoe on February 7, 2012 at 5:05 PM · Report
4
You are being disingenuous, Jonathan. The gas tax as a share of revenue is going down. Technically, I suppose, neither person was correct but Eileen looks like a bit of a jerk.
Posted by jskelton on February 7, 2012 at 5:18 PM · Report
5
Just as a bit of context, the BikePortland.org interview with Smith also says that he voted against the gas tax increase. I would posit that this conversation over up-or-down numbers is missing the point.
Posted by ($8239f8h248cerfehjf23@&*@ebdjhb23f237OCDBO#BD*(# on February 7, 2012 at 5:31 PM · Report
6
Didn't mean to imply Smith voted FOR it, only that it happened while he was a voting member.

And upon further reflection of jradmacher's conception of what the question was, is Mirk right that "let PBOT swing" was the essence of Brady's answer? That's how we'll solve the PBOT budget issue: cut 20% or whatever from PBOT? That would be an answer that would have long term ramifications even beyond the time it will take for gas revenues to actually start decreasing again...!
Posted by torridjoe on February 7, 2012 at 6:52 PM · Report

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