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Monday, May 14, 2012

New OPB Poll: Big Gain for Hales, Modest Gain for Smith, Big Drop for Brady

Posted by Denis C. Theriault on Mon, May 14, 2012 at 12:44 PM

The freshest public poll yet in the Portland mayor's race holds some lousy news for Eileen Brady's mayoral campaign a day before voting stops.

Remember that Oregonian/KGW poll last week that everyone called an "outlier" because it put Brady in third place behind Charlie Hales and Jefferson Smith? A survey from OPB released today pretty much affirms that result—which has to be a dispiriting trend for a campaign that's raised, and then spent, more than a million bucks.

Since the last OPB poll done at the end of April, Brady's number has fallen seven points. Meanwhile, Hales saw a surge that same size, while Smith also saw a four-point bump. Hales and Smith are starting to cement their status as the two candidates most likely to make the November runoff—although Brady isn't so far behind, under the poll's 4.9 percent margin of error, that she can't technically manage to squeak into the runoff.

Screen_shot_2012-05-14_at_12.13.33_PM.png

Where Brady finishes (assuming she won't place first, but also remembering what"they" say about assumptions...) will be as big a story as who finishes first in the mayoral race. Even placing second will be seen by some observers as a loss, given Brady's overwhelming cash advantage when it comes to getting her message out. That'll mean a few things: She didn't have a message, or one that voters liked. Or that her campaign didn't do a good job selling the message she had. Or, that, you know, Portlanders still don't much like over-the-top big-money candidates.

In the other big contested city race, the poll notes that incumbent Commissioner Amanda Fritz's lead over State Representative Mary Nolan is all but unchanged since the last one, growing by a single, irrelevant percentage point.

Who do you think will win and how? Vote in our super unscientific accurate, statistically spot-on, and completely scientific poll! Defend your choices in the comments. UPDATE 12:48 PM: My boss threatened to fire me if I didn't correct the characterization of our poll to the "truth." Sigh.

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