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Monday, October 29, 2012

Election 2012 Oregonian Poll: Hales, Fritz Lead City Races; Brown, Avakian Lead in State

Posted by Denis C. Theriault on Mon, Oct 29, 2012 at 5:13 PM

The Oregonian this afternoon has just begun dropping the results of three days of polling conducted this weekend on local, state, and national races, providing the first solid snapshot in weeks on where voters (400 of 'em, give or take!) stand.

In the mayor's race, Charlie Hales appears to have opened a 20-point lead over Jefferson Smith, who sounds more and more like he's gracefully trying to wrap things up over the next eight days and has been talking as much about the Portland Public Schools bond as his own campaign. Hales had a nine seven-point lead earlier this month in a KATU poll that hit while Smith was still digging himself into a hole with his clumsy handling of reports he punched a woman at a 1993 college party.

Says the O's Brad Schmidt:

Hales' growing lead comes less from his candidacy picking up momentum—it has, but in limited numbers—and more from fading support for Smith, whose campaign has been reeling this month after Oct. 1 revelations that he hit a woman in the face at a college party 19 years ago.

Commissioner Amanda Fritz, meanwhile, sits eight points ahead of her challenger, State Representative Mary Nolan, in a runoff fight that echoes their primary race—which, to decidedly use a horse-race metaphor, wound up in a photo finish after undecided voters waited until the end to make up their minds. More voters are actually undecided than backing Nolan—32 percent to 30 percent. The margin for error in the poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, is 5 percentage points.

Other highlights? Barack Obama has just a six-point edge over Willard Romney. Measure 80, on legalizing pot and hemp, is trailing. Kicking the corporate kicker is ahead. The Portland arts tax, trumpeted intensely by Mayor Sam Adams, is behind. And Democrats Kate Brown and Brad Avakian (technically in a nonpartisan contest) are ahead in their races, respectively, for secretary of state and labor commissioner.

The results are mostly appearing under this link.

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