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Thursday, November 8, 2012

What Went Wrong with Republican Predictions

Posted by Paul Constant on Thu, Nov 8, 2012 at 10:29 AM

That Unskewed Polls Guy:

Chambers' method of "unskewing" polls involved re-weighting the sample to match what he believed the electorate would look like, in terms of party identification. He thought the electorate would lean more Republican when mainstream pollsters routinely found samples that leaned Democratic.

But as it turned out, the pollsters were right — self-identified Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6% in election exit polls.

"I think it was much more in the Democratic direction than most people predicted," Chambers said. "But those assumptions — my assumptions — were wrong."

Dick Morris:

The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.

Glad to see these schmucks owning up to their errors. Has Karl Rove pulled his thumb out of his mouth long enough to apologize for his election night snit-fit yet?

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