The 2015 MLS Cup Playoffs are here, and the Portland Timbers take center-stage tonight with the finale of the Wild Card games between the Timbers and Sporting Kansas City at Providence Park (7 pm, TV on UniMas and ROOT Sports.)
Portland finished the regular season on Sunday with a feel-good 4-1 win over the Colorado Rapids, finishing the season in third place on 53 points. The Timbers enter the postseason having won their last three and scored nine goals in their last two, and playing their best soccer of the season. But winning on will be no small task.
Portland's games against a vastly experienced and battle-tested Kansas City this year have been tight, intense, physical affairs, with Sporting having scored the only goal between the teams in three games so far. Win, and the Timbers move onto the Western Conference semifinals to play Vancouver. Lose, and their season is over.
The History
This is the Timbers' second playoff trip in their five-year MLS history, and this will be their third home playoff game. The first home playoff game was on also on a Thursday night—a week short of two years ago—when Portland bounced Seattle from the 2013 postseason.
The Timbers were knocked out of the '13 playoffs in their next home game, the second leg of the Western Conference Final against Real Salt Lake. RSL would go onto MLS Cup and lose to this Sporting Kansas City team, which had the same core as this 2015 KC side does. Kansas City had to go on the road for a Wild Card game last year as well, and lost to the New York Red Bulls.
The story of the games between these two sides this year has been well-documented. Portland hasn't scored, and Kansas City hasn't done much better with the three games finishing 0-0, 0-0, and 1-0. Historically, Sporting has been very good at Providence Park—having only lost once in their history, on a 2012 own-goal by Chance Myers.
The Timbers' most stinging loss of the year was probably the 1-0 turnaround almost a month ago. This is a chance to right this wrong—and not to look ahead, but a win means a meeting with Vancouver that will have the Timbers licking their chops.
The Tactics
If Chara is fit—and my guess is the only way he doesn't play is if his leg is broken—the Timbers will most likely go with the inverted 4-3-3. Portland has had all kinds of trouble breaking Sporting down this year, and the single-pivot formation is the Timbers' most dynamic and attacking look.
If Chara can't play, things get murky. Will Johnson was on the bench against Colorado, but Jack Jewsbury was used ahead of him and it seems unlikely that Johnson's first appearance in almost a month and a half would be a playoff start. It's more likely in this scenario that the Timbers would play a 4-2-3-1 with Jewsbury partnering George Fochive, seeing as those two have had a terrific partnership whenever called upon this year.
Of concern to the Timbers and Porter is the form of Lucas Melano. The Argentine DP has looked totally devoid of confidence, and, apart from an assist to Darlington Nagbe, he had a torrid time against Colorado. Melano looked good in the 4-3-3 when shorn of most of his defensive responsibility, but the Timbers need to figure out how to get him more involved. Rodney Wallace hasn't been great either since the Columbus game, but he seems like a lock to play.
Sporting's biggest storyline coming into this game is the status of Benny Feilhaber, who was surprisingly left out of the starting lineup for SKC's regular season finale against LA. Feilhaber would come on and produce the game-winning assist, and with all sides denying a rift between the player and Vermes, it seems like Feilhaber will start.
Ike Opara and Roger Espinoza are both out for this game, and Sporting will likely play a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 with a dangerous forward line of Graham Zusi, Dom Dwyer, and Kriztian Nemeth—the Hungarian who scored the wonder-goal to beat the Timbers on October 3rd.
Kansas City is expected to come out in a defensive posture, but expect the game to eventually open up. A key will be how well Fanendo Adi can manage small center-backs in Matt Besler and Kevin Ellis, and if Liam Ridgewell—who was poor against Colorado—can manage the tireless Dwyer.
Expect plenty of fouls early, primarily on Nagbe and Feilhaber, and set pieces might be key as well. Extra time and beyond is by no means out of the question.
The Lineups
Sporting Kansas City
28 - Melia
12 - Sinovic
5 - Besler (C)
4 - Ellis
7 - Myers
93 - Mustivar
6 - Nagamura
10 - Feilhaber
8 - Zusi
14 - Dwyer
9 - Nemeth
Portland Timbers
12 - Kwarasey
2 - Powell
24 - Ridgewell (C)
7 - Borchers
19 - Villafaña
21 - Chara
6 - Nagbe
8 - Valeri
22 - Wallace
26 - Melano
9 - Adi
The Pick
The Timbers are justifiably favorites, but I think it's unwise to count Sporting out. Kansas City has, especially this year, played up to their competition. This should be a battle, but the Timbers have a lot going for them right now—it's belief with plenty of reason. 2-1 Portland in extra time.
