A year after the city saw $49 million in surplus revenues—money it largely spent on transportation projects—city budget staffers expect an additional $11 million to play with in Portland's general fund next year, according to a forecast released this morning.
"This year will likely end up being the fastest year of local economic growth since the tech bubble in the late 1990s," City Economist Josh Harwood writes in the document. "Job growth has been widespread and income growth is finally ramping up after years of stagnation."
The budget surplus means most city bureaus can probably rest easy, despite direction from Mayor Charlie Hales that all bureaus (except the Portland Housing Bureau) should propose 5 percent cuts.
The $11 million figure is a touch misleading, too. In fact, the city's surplus is closer to $16 $21 million over last year's budget, Harwood says, but the City Council has already put $5 million in new ongoing yearly funding and $5 million one-time money toward housing. There's a strong possibility the situation will only get better from here. The City Budget Office almost always finds more money found by April than it predicts in December.
"Our financial policies tell us to forecast conservatively," Harwood says. "As we move from now to April, we'll know more."
It's not always positive progress, though. From 2009 to 2011, the forecast actually got worse from December to April. Harwood says that's unlikely this year. Here's a handy chart the budget office included in the new forecast.
So what's city council gonna do with this $11 million-plus? Well, council policy dictates at least half of new one-time money has to be dedicated toward capital projects like building and street maintenance. If it chooses to abide that policy, the city will have limited cash to spend on housing and stemming gun violence, which Hales has said are his priorities for next year's budget.
There's also millions in increased costs for parks employees looming, as we've written about, and 13 firefighter positions that are currently being funded with grant money that's slated to dry up.
