Standing outside his modest SE Portland ranch home with his wife Mary Sorteberg, Jeff Merkley was all smiles, but declined to claim victory in his Senate race against incumbent Gordon Smith. (Merkley apparently hasn't seen MY projections, which currently put him at a roughly 50K vote victory when this whole thing is over).

UPDATE at 6:34 pm: I've updated my numbers with new data from the counties with the most outstanding votes. I'm still projecting Merkley ahead by 53K votes when this is over, 867,850 to 814,190. And the Oregonian has called the race.

Merkley says this race "may be the factor in this nation moving forward." When he defeats Smith (when, not if), he'll be the 57th Democratic senator. It's not filibuster-proof, but it's a strong majority.

With so many outstanding votes in Lane and Multnomah counties, Merkley says he's "optimistic." And those counties are "really the basis of our optimism."

One reporter asked if he'd end up with a mandate. Merkley noted that "it's a very rare thing when an incumbent Senator is defeated," with that only happening one other time in Oregon history. Even if the margin is slim, it's a "huge statement saying no, we really do need to change direction."

Multnomah County's vote count is moving slowly, but it appears to be positive for the Defend Oregon Coalition folks, who are hoping to see Measure 64 defeated. This is the fourth time Bill Sizemore has proposed the measure to Oregon voters, which forbids public employees donating to unions direct from their paychecks. Last night the count across Oregon put the measure pretty much split, with 50.12% of people in favor.

But Multnomah County's votes, which are counting at a rate of around 5 to 7,000 ballots an hour, (we think, because the county had such a huge influx of voters on the last day), meaning they're not going to be done until late tomorrow, appear to be putting Measure 64 closer to failing as they get counted. The latest set of results puts Multnomah County voters 61% against the measure.

Scott Moore from Defend Oregon says the ballot title, which said "prohibits person or entity from using "public resources" for "political purposes"," was confusing and deceptive.

"The ballot title didn't give voters any sense of what the measure would do or what it's impacts are," says Moore.

Alison's hangover might be disappearing but Jesus Christ, every part of my body still hurts. My eyes are scratchy from days of scrolling through political blogs followed by a night of tears. My legs are stiff thanks to a massive midnight street dance party on SE Morrison. My head... ohhh whiskey and Obama. Mostly, I've been so tense for so long that letting off all that anxiety all of a sudden (OMG OHIO!!!) painfully reminds me how little I've slept in recent days and how I've mainly subsisted on food that can be eaten while checking internet polls with one hand (primarily peanut butter sandwiches and coffee). Everyone I've seen today has been similarly sallow-cheeked so I only imagine this is a national day of intense hangover - especially for all those campaigners who have been spending their every hour knocking on doors and stressing over turnout.

Last night was amazing but, seriously, maybe tomorrow I'll have recuperated enough to be excited.

Despite my occasional efforts at a wacko punk veneer, I am at heart a conservative prone to underestimating people and being disappointed by them. This, I suspect, is a nature/nurture issue, stemming from being born in Britain. Because last night, sitting at the Oregon Convention Center next to Teresa Teater (whom else would I be bound to watch Obama's victory with, I pondered), waiting in vain as my two tasks for the evening began to look less and less accomplishable, (get Jeff Merkley's remarks following the outcome of his race, which didn't get decided, and find out what's happening to the ballot measures, the most important of which was 50.18/49.82 by 10pm...), I realized at last how I am fundamentally different from you Americans. The British Guardian sums up the English disbelief this morning:

They did it. They really did it. So often crudely caricatured by others, the American people yesterday stood in the eye of history and made an emphatic choice for change for themselves and the world.

I imagine we felt similarly surprised in Boston, during the tea party. Just when we've decided you're all fools, that you couldn't pull together around a common ideal to save your lives, you, er, well, you pull together around a common ideal to save your lives. This would never have happened in England, never in a million years.

I still don't really believe what happened last night. As Obama's speech aired, two African American guys who were on my left got onto the press table to watch it. I was talking with them, thinking how strange it was that an African American man was addressing them, and me, and that they had more in common with the guy in power than I did. Again, I was struck: This would never have happened in England. Admittedly, we abolished slavery before you did. But race aside, we have a rigid class structure. Obama winning the presidency last night was the British class equivalent of a barrow boy being made King. It wouldn't happen there. There's a conservative streak running through our nation that just doesn't exist in yours. And for that, God Bless America.

I've spent the last eight years accepting the fact that Bush was the end of this country, that I was around at the demise of America as a relevant world power. I thought it would be fun to stand apart at an ironic distance, chronicling the bonfire. Because what other option did I have? I'd never experienced some of the other spectacular rallies this country has been through. I only had a British sense of doom and gloom to fall back on. Now, today, I have to start seeing things differently.

If you're American, you're better than me because I didn't believe in some part of me that last night was really possible. I'm glad I live here among you.

Long story short: I'm predicting a win for Jeff Merkley, based on highly scientific number crunching.

Bear with me for a minute, while I walk you through my geekdom.

County by county, I calculated the number of outstanding ballots (the total number of ballots received, as reported to the state, minus the ones already counted, as reported in the county's current unofficial results). Then in each county, those outstanding votes were multiplied by Smith and Merkley's current percentage. So the 158,498 left to count in Multnomah County are split, with Smith getting 29.31 percent and Merkley getting 66.52 percent.

Adding those future estimated votes to their current tallies, here's the result I get:

Merkley: 866,430
Smith: 807,148

The potential flaw in my calculations: Either candidate could trend significantly better or worse than they're currently doing. In other words, Smith could take 32 percent of the outstanding Multnomah County votes instead of matching his current 29.31. I don't have the data to calculate their possible trends.

But! I'll keep updating my geektastic Excel spreadsheet as more votes are counted. Meanwhile, 60,000 votes would be a hell of a surge for Smith.

(P.S. - what's up with some Oregon county websites? I'm looking at you, Sherman county. Post your damn elections results! In cases like that, I presumed there were no outstanding votes.)

So the fact that Barack Obama won and there was a big giddy drunken dance party is great and all, but let us not forget the most amazing thing that happened last night: That we, as a people, realized with panic, fear, and delight THAT HOLOGRAMS NOW WALK AMONGST US, TALKING AND GESTURING AND GLOWING, AS WILL.I.AM PUT IT, "LIKE IT'S STAR WARS AND STUFF."

"Let's see if we can 'beam him in' now!" Anderson Cooper (Channel 1 represent!) eagerly said on CNN--ushering us into a new age in which humans' days are numbered and blue, glowing shadows of ephemeral holo-people can do and say as they please, with absolutely no regard for our universe's physical or social laws.

Can YOU tell the difference?

Wired has the terrifying story about how CNN wasted their money pushed the technological envelope accidentally started Cyberdine Systems doomed us all:

The hologram didn't actually appear in the CNN studio. Instead, it's an effect visible only to TV viewers thanks to a massive array of cameras and some really impressive real-time video processing.

To make it work, the virtual correspondents were sequestered in quiet rooms and "scanned" through motion capture and camera-tracking telemetry.

Each VR-enabled room had between 35 and 44 small, fixed cameras, which combined to take in a 360-degree image of the person. The studio also had 20 PCs crunching the data.

Once collected, the data was processed by graphics software, which synchronized the angles needed to produce an accurate render that matched up with what the main CNN cameras were showing.

Translated from geekspeak, I'm pretty sure this means we're all screwed. As the old maxim goes, "ONE CANNOT TRUST ROBOTS, AND ONE DOUBLY CANNOT TRUST HOLOGRAMS--ESPECIALLY HOLOGRAMS OF WILL.I.A.M."

Multnomah County still has 152,000 votes to count and we're all on edge to see how that last lode of ballots will tip the razor thin margin in the Merkley-Smith race (as of noon today, Smith is 10,000 votes ahead). In the meantime, most of the local levies are all polling so far ahead that they seem to be shoe-ins for sure. Check out the results:

Children's Levy
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 102,782 70.17
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,703 29.83

Zoo Levy
Multnomah County:
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,098 57.66
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 78,652 42.34
Clackamas County:
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 44,367 55.24
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 35,947 44.76

PCC
Multnomah County
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,729 61.84%
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 44,269 38.16%
Clackamas County
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,231 54.79%
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,793 45.21%
Washington County
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,203 43.72%
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,111 56.28%
Columbia County
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,349 30.33%
No. . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,289 69.67%
Yamhill County
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,187 51%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,719 48%
so current totals: YES -> 175,699
NO -> 177,181
edit: thanks to commenter GLV for pointing out PCC's low results in other counties! P.C.C. public affairs manager Dana Haynes has been watching the results come in all day. He says the levy was 4,000 votes behind when he ate breakfast, 2,000 behind when he got to campus, 1,000 behind during lunch and now 180 behind. As I'm talking to him on the phone RIGHT NOW, he says the tally just went positive 137 votes. The bulk of the remaining votes, he says, are from Multnomah County, so while he's too superstitious to call the election, he says right now his team is "cautiously optimistic." While they're sweating out the final results, I want to thank Columbia County for voting against investing in education. What's the deal with that? Do they hate urban college educated elites? Taxes? Those fuckers should note that every dollar governments have invested in P.C.C. has had a $6.10 cumulative return.

...sorry, voting against education funding always pisses me off.

Hee! From Newsweek's reporters embedded with the campaign, who are sworn to secrecy until after the election:

NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain's top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family-clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast," and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.

Folks, the dance party is in full swing here at Doug Fir. We're done blogging for the night. It's time for us to get drunk (and, um, send the paper to the printer with some election coverage!).

We leave you with this, in honor of the impending Obama Baby Boom. From the Doug Fir green room, this amorous couple invaded the Mercury's makeshift newsroom, and got down to it.

(After an hour, they left, with the dude mumbling that they didn't "find her purse." Mmm, hmm.)

"It's like everybody in America got married to each other all at once."

-via text from Ned Lannamann

Early results on the mandatory minimums measure that would blow a $2 billion hole in the state budget:

Yes Votes 86,359 43.11 percent
No Votes 113,957 56.89 percent

WTF Oregon? In a sane society, this would have gone down in flames.

The best reason to bike to work ever - Oregon's new attorney general (the stellar and highly intelligent John Kroger) just promised me, "Tomorrow morning I'm going to stand on the Hawthorne Bridge and thank voters." Literally.

Ah, so this is what patriotism feels like.

"Yaaaaa! progress USA!!!!"

-via txt from Catherine

The scene when I got back to Doug Fir, at 8:30:

Jeff Merkley is KICKING ASS in the state senate race, with 60 FUCKING PERCENT of the vote with 200,000 votes counted.

Democrat Secretary of State candidate Kate Brown CREAMED Rick Dancer in Multnomah County with 66% of the vote in her favor so far. The final results might be different but what's that? A marching drumline coming through the Convention Center?! People are ecstatic - catch you back on the blog in a bit.

"Change at last, change at last!"

-txt from Amy

"They shut down U street because people have flooded the streets in celebration! It's crazier than new years on happy crack! Every street is insane!"

-via text from my friend Shawn.