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Election 2012

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Gay Marriage Looking Good in Maryland Polls

Posted by Paul Constant on Thu, May 24, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Public Policy Polling says that gay marriage seems to be polling very well in Maryland:

-57% of Maryland voters say they’re likely to vote for the new marriage law this fall, compared to only 37% who are opposed. That 20 point margin of passage represents a 12 point shift from an identical PPP survey in early March, which found it ahead by a closer 52/44 margin.

-The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote for the law and only 36% now opposed.

One of the "strongest" arguments gay marriage foes have right now is that voters have never approved gay marriage. Let's see what kind of arguments they can muster if one (or, hopefully, two or more) states approve it this November.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Your Daily No-Duh

Posted by Paul Constant on Wed, May 23, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Fox News does not prepare you for questions about news:

The study concludes that media sources have a significant impact on the number of questions that people were able to answer correctly. The largest effect is that of Fox News: all else being equal, someone who watched only Fox News would be expected to answer just 1.04 domestic questions correctly — a figure which is significantly worse than if they had reported watching no media at all. On the other hand, if they listened only to NPR, they would be expected to answer 1.51 questions correctly; viewers of Sunday morning talk shows fare similarly well. And people watching only The Daily Show with Jon Stewart could answer about 1.42 questions correctly.

“These differences may be small, but even small differences are important when we’re talking about millions of people”

The study claims that partisan media is to blame—they say MSNBC is almost as bad as Fox—but I think it has more to do with credulousness. NPR and The Daily Show are both much more likely to question the conventional wisdom they're reporting, and the Sunday morning talk shows at least spend a lot of time on a single subject, even if they are echo chambers.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Poll Says Nobody Cares About Gay Marriage

Posted by Paul Constant on Tue, May 22, 2012 at 2:29 PM

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll says President Obama's announcement of support for gay marriage hasn't made a difference at all. This is your daily reminder that polls are stupid:

In the poll, a combined 17 percent says it makes them "much more likely" or "somewhat more likely" they will vote for him. That's compared with a combined 20 percent who say the announcement will make them more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, who opposes gay marriage.

Perhaps more importantly, 62 percent say the president's support for gay marriage doesn't make a difference in their vote — including 75 percent of independents, 76 percent of moderates, 81 percent of African Americans, and 65 percent of residents in the Midwest who say that.

Okay, but. This was never going to be an issue that would pull people to President Obama's side. The thing this poll doesn't account for is the thousands of people who spoke up to show gratitude to the president following his announcement. That enthusiasm and personal engagement is the sort of energy that drives elections, and it's the sort of energy that Mitt Romney can't seem to muster.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Re-Birtherism

Posted by Paul Constant on Fri, May 18, 2012 at 2:14 PM

It seems that it's time for birtherism to pop back up again. First, in Arizona, as Dan told you this morning, birthers are trying to get President Obama knocked off the ballot.

Second, the late Andrew Breitbart's site has "discovered" that Barack Obama's literary agent in 1991 accidentally claimed in promotional materials that Obama was "born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii." PROOF!

Third, now that we've read some of the love letters that President Obama wrote as a young man, it's time for the same people who claimed that Obama couldn't have written his own memoir to claim that he didn't write his love letters, either. Dave Weigel at Slate found a doozy of an "expert."

[W]riting longhand, presumably from memory, Obama has the wherewithal to put an umlaut over the “u” in Münzer. In college, I was an Honors English student and a Classics minor, not a political science major like Obama. I had not even heard of Münzer before reading this letter.

That Obama could embark upon a sophisticated, spontaneous discussion of T.S. Eliot — he claimed not to have read “The Waste Land” for a year and never bothered “to check all the footnotes” — should have alerted Maraniss.

Nowhere in “Dreams [from My Father]" is there any mention of T.S. Eliot, Münzer or Yeats.


Those are some compelling arguments: He can't possibly be smarter than me, and it's doubtful that anyone has more than three literary references to throw around. Birtherism is back, baby, and better than ever!

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That's One Way to Take Arizona Out of Play

Posted by Dan Savage on Fri, May 18, 2012 at 9:13 AM

So there was this:


The Obama campaign is looking to expand the battleground states map to include Arizona, opening campaign offices and registering voters across the state despite its Republican governor, two Republican senators, and a history of voting Republican in presidential elections broken, in the past 50 years, only by Bill Clinton.... “It is going to be a swing state,” said Jim Messina, the president’s campaign manager. “The question is, whether we can get enough people registered to put it in play this year.”


Which is why there's this:


The man in charge of running Arizona’s elections has gone to the birthers. Secretary of State Ken Bennett now says he’s not convinced Barack Obama was really born in the United States and so he is threatening to keep the president off the ballot in November.... Bennett [is] the state’s No. 2 elected official just below Gov. Jan Brewer (R).... “I’m not a birther. I believe the president was born in Hawaii—or at least I hope he was,” Bennett said on the show. “But my responsibility as secretary of state is to make sure the ballots in Arizona are correct and that those people whose names are on the ballot have met the qualifications for the office they are seeking.”

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Mitt Romney: "I Stand By What I Said, Whatever It Was"

Posted by Paul Constant on Thu, May 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

This is why Mitt Romney doesn't do press availabilities:

This is a response to a question about whether Romney stands by a statement he made on Hannity about Reverend Wright that appears to contradict what Romney's campaign said today about Reverend Wright being off-limits. You'll be seeing a lot of this video.

Republican Super PAC Plans Reverend Wright-Themed Anti-Obama Attack Ads

Posted by Paul Constant on Thu, May 17, 2012 at 9:44 AM

The New York Times has published a 50-page document titled "The Defeat of Barack Hussein Obama" that was put together by Republican strategists for a super PAC, and then hilariously leaked to the press. The Washington Post explains:

The New York Times got hold of a proposed campaign playbook commissioned by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, who has become increasingly involved in GOP politics.

The plan, called “The Defeat of Barack Hussein Obama: The Ricketts Plan to End His Spending for Good,” would “do exactly what John McCain would not let us do,” the strategists write, according to the Times report...Mitt Romney’s campaign distanced itself from the idea.

“Unlike the Obama campaign, Gov. Romney is running a campaign based on jobs and the economy, and we encourage everyone else to do the same,” campaign manager Matt Rhoades said. “It’s clear President Obama’s team is running a campaign of character assassination. We repudiate any efforts on our side to do so.”

I haven't read the whole document, but I can't wait to do that. It begins:

The metrosexual black Abe Lincoln has emerged as a hyper-partisan, hyper liberal, elitist politician with more than a bit of the trimmer in him.

Wow! Someone paid a lot of money for that writing. But for now, let's stay focused on this Wright thing. While it's true that John McCain refused to let his campaign attack Obama on Reverend Wright, there were Republican ads featuring Reverend Wright in 2008. The American people heard all about Reverend Wright, and they decided it wasn't a major issue. And let's pretend for a second that every fringe Republican bad dream about this is true, and that Reverend Wright did instill in President Obama, somehow, a deep-seated hatred of the United States. Wouldn't President Obama have destroyed America by now? Waiting for a second term to unleash the full force of your "god damn America" routine doesn't seem like the smartest move.

I refuse to believe this plan would have seen fruition. I think the Romney people (and, yes, the campaigns are supposed to have no contact with their super PACs, but I don't think any American believes that to be the reality) would have pulled the plug on this particular attack line. The last thing the Romney people want, one of the things they're most afraid of, is a discussion about religion. But this is a major black eye for the Romney campaign: Having the plans for the campaign slipped to the media means the Romney campaign suffers basically all the negatives of releasing a negative ad campaign with none of the positives.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Romney Team Kind of Apologizes for Denying Press Access to Mitt Romney

Posted by Paul Constant on Wed, May 16, 2012 at 2:29 PM

You may know about the Romney campaign's attempts to keep reporters off the rope line. CNN has more:

Press aides for the Romney campaign and a lone Secret Service agent attempted to physically block reporters from asking questions of the GOP contender along an event rope line in Saint Petersburg, Florida on Wednesday.

The brief altercation was captured on video by CNN. A spokeswoman from the Romney campaign later called it "an error."

"We're not going to do this," Romney press aide Kristen Warren can be heard saying in the video as she held out her arms to prevent various reporters from approaching the rope line, an area where Romney was shaking hands with supporters.

My favorite part of that video is that the reporters are being denied access to the presidential candidate as Kid Rock's "Born Free" plays in the background. It's not like freedom of the press is in the Constitution or anything, after all! In any case, the Romney campaign has admitted that physically restraining the press was an "error."

Meanwhile, the last anything-goes press conference held by Mitt Romney was back in March.

Professional Acting Advice for Mitt Romney

Posted by David Schmader on Wed, May 16, 2012 at 11:14 AM

From Inside the Actors Studio's James Lipton, via NY Mag.

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Did President Obama Swear?

Posted by Paul Constant on Wed, May 16, 2012 at 9:44 AM

So it has come to this:

News of Obama’s usage of the dirty “s” word [NOTE: She means "shit," but she cannot type the word "shit," perhaps because she is Mormon, or an elementary-school student.] came when Huffington Post editor Ethan Klapper tweeted “Obama hot mic just now — ‘I gotta get my sh……’” right after the president allegedly used the full-length version of the obscenity....Fox Nation has muffled audio of the utterance, although I’ve listened to it about ten times and still cannot make out any bad language. And Mary Ann LoFrumento says he never swore to begin with, having tweeted in the aftermath of Klapper’s tweet, “I was sitting close to the President on the platform and he said ‘I gotta get my gift’ referring to his medal of distinction.”

This is the most important issue of our time! Here's the video:

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Election Night Live Blog: The Mayor's Race

Posted by Mercury Election Battalion on Tue, May 15, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Welcome to the Blogtown Election Vulture's Lair, where in this post we'll be covering the Portland race for mayor. Scroll down for the latest on the Oregon Attorney General race, council races, ballot measures... everything else. The latest updates start at the top of the page! For up to the second news and results follow us on the Twitter @portlandmercury, and in particular #mercelex.
Signed,
Mercury 1st Election Battalion (nickname: Nightmare Warriors)

•••••

From the Mercury Vulture's Lair 10:37 pm: Well the "10:30 pm" results are in, and while not a poop ton of votes have been added, the numbers are basically the same. Check it: Charlie Hales 38.36 percent, Jefferson Smith 29.22, Eileen Brady 23.80 percent. Unless something crazy happens between now and the morning light, we have our two mayoral candidates who will be butting heads all the way to November. Amanda Fritz and Mary Nolan are tied at 44 percent, and the only clear winners of the night are Ellen Rosenblum (AG), Steve Novick (city council), Bob Stacey (metro), Sam Chase (metro) and the Multnomah County Library (who I'm sure is gonna be wicked hungover tomorrow). Be sure to check out our party-night election wrap-up in this week's edition of the Mercury, hitting the streets by early afternoon tomorrow! THANKS FOR JOINING US!

Eileen Brady party 10:32 pm: "Hey," I thought, "Maybe everybody went up to party on the top of the boat!" (EH)

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[Is that a river tumbleweed I just saw?—WSH]

From the Mercury Vulture's Lair 10:09 pm: Looks like a low turnout election—campaigns estimate only 35 to 40 percent of eligible voters cast ballots. The next round of results is due at 10:30 pm—that is if you're not already in bed, or watching Revenge on your DVR. Have you guys seen Revenge? It's actually pretty fun. I'm tired. (WSH)

From the Mercury Vulture's Lair 9:43 pm: 19-year-old mayoral candidate Max Brumm tweets:

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(Will you at least concede that Hostess Twinkies are delicious??)

Eileen Brady party 9:30 pm:

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SADDEST BOAT EVER!! (EH)

Jefferson Smith party 9:13 pm: Alright, Jeff's finally arrived! I caught him on the street. His dad tried to make him cross the street on a red light, but Jeff waited for the green. (That's what happens when you get the police union endorsement.) And, aww, that's sweet! He won't stop kissing his wife. (AZ)

From the Mercury Vulture's Lair 9:25 pm: Now here's a happy-looking guy.

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  • Dan Olson

Jefferson Smith party 9:13 pm: I hear Jefferson's been spotted at the Jupiter Hotel, home of the party for the three Multnomah County commissioner races and the library vote. But I kid you not, this has turned into a Bollywood dance party. The DJ is now a dance instructor, and old folks are shaking their thang. EXCELLENT. (AZ)

From the Mercury Vulture's Lair 9:02 pm: The 9 pm results are in and here's how it stacks up: Charlie Hales 38.28 percent, Jefferson Smith 29.02 percent, and Eileen Brady an even 24 percent. OUCH!! In some good news for Eileen, Tre Arrow is far in the back of the pack with a mere .72 percent. In your FACE, Tre! (WSH)

Eileen Brady party 9 pm: Results on TV: Hales 39 percent, Smith 29 percent, Brady 24 percent. Other than reporters, no one at the Eileen Brady party is even watching. (EH)

Jefferson Smith party 8:58 pm: Right now there's a crazy DJ with a scarf on, who's pumping house music. I'm confused. Where am I? Where is Jefferson Smith? Is this a dream? Jeff's dad is dancing. (AZ)

From the Mercury Vulture's Lair 8:55 pm: The Oregonian is calling it... Mitt Romney is the Oregon Republican pick for President! (This message brought to you by Lake Oswego.)

Jefferson Smith party 8:50 pm: A ton of celebs are here, Cameron Whitten, Teressa Raiford (who's rooting for Fritz), Jeff Cogen, etc. Really lively, BIG crowd. Still no sign of Jeff. I still haven't eaten, which I'm just realizing. Everyone's getting loopy and yelling at each other over the music. Woo! (AZ)

Continue reading »

Election Night Live Blog: AG Race, Council, Et Al.

Posted by Mercury Election Battalion on Tue, May 15, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Welcome to the Blogtown Election Vulture's Lair, where in this post we'll be covering the Oregon Attorney General race, council races, ballot measures... everything that ain't the mayor's race. The latest updates start at the top of the page! For up to the second news and results follow us on the Twitter @portlandmercury, and in particular #mercelex.
Signed,
Mercury 1st Election Battalion (nickname: Nightmare Warriors)

•••••

From the Mercury Vulture's Lair 10:37 pm: Well the "10:30 pm" results are in, and while not a poop ton of votes have been added, the numbers are basically the same. Check it: Charlie Hales 38.36 percent, Jefferson Smith 29.22, Eileen Brady 23.80 percent. Unless something crazy happens between now and the morning light, we have our two mayoral candidates who will be butting heads all the way to November. Amanda Fritz and Mary Nolan are tied at 44 percent, and the only clear winners of the night are Ellen Rosenblum (AG), Steve Novick (city council), Bob Stacey (metro), Sam Chase (metro) and the Multnomah County Library (who I'm sure is gonna be wicked hungover tomorrow). Be sure to check out our party-night election wrap-up in this week's edition of the Mercury, hitting the streets by early afternoon tomorrow! THANKS FOR JOINING US!

METRO RACE Bob Stacey party 10:37 pm: Metro Councilor-elect Bob Stacey says he'll focus on keeping that pesky urban-growth boundary in check. To do that, he hopes to develop nine potential sites inside the boundary for industrial development. Keeping growth in the city will keep jobs in the city and it will keep farmland from being developed, he says. We can assume Stacey will keep his word. He knows a thing or two about sustainability. Stacey also spent the first part of the night with his right pant leg tucked into his sock because he biked to his campaign party. And if that ain't a ringing endorsement for environmental credibility, I don’t know what is. (NG)

Mary Nolan party 10:30 pm: Party's wrapping up fo'real. Nolan is saying she needs sleep and is trying to coerce guests into taking home the leftover vegetables and beer. The couple at the piano are playing, and singing. The cheese plate looks about half empty. No, wait—about 44 percent to 44 percent. The rest is in my belly. (GP)

Steve Novick party 10:20 pm: After his win, Steve Novick says he plans on getting started right away planning for his new job as City Commissioner. Okay, so that’s not until January. And Novick already has a day job at the Oregon Health Authority. Come January this is what we might see: First on Novick’s agenda is mental health and public safety. Novick says he wants to work with the state and county to focus on funding prevention instead of jail beds. Second, Novick says he wants to help reform the state healthcare system. And third on his list is earthquake preparation, (I’m not kidding. Unlike many politician,s Novick takes the matter of our impending doom very seriously.) Novick says he wants to get low-interest loans for homeowners whose houses aren’t attached to their foundations (there are more of these in Oregon than you might think). Novick has other plans in the works, but for now, he is enjoying his victory, and tomorrow, a vacation in New Orleans. (NG)

METRO RACE Sam Chase's party 10:14 pm: "I'm feeling very good here," Sam Chase, who's running for Metro Council said at his campaign party at Santa Fe Taqueria in Northwest Portland. "We'll see where things are." Although Chase, who serves as the executive director of the Coalition of Community Health Clinics, had 58 percent of the vote in Multnomah County, he was still cautious about declaring victory before getting a concession call from his main opponent, Helen Ying.

"I think I've been really impressed with how much people care about the quality of life in our region and protecting what is unique in our region," Chase said.

"You're boring," Zoe Chase, his 9-year-old daughter, piped in.

Chase's phone rang. It was Ying calling to congratulate him. (JT)

Mary Nolan party 9:51 pm: A young man just jumped onto the piano here at the North Star Ballroom, and a woman is now perched in a foldout chair next to him, belting out ballads. They sound 1940s-ish, and her voice reminds me of Adele. KJ Lewis, Nolan's campaign manager: "This is great. Normally you pay money for this sort of show. They're just here, singing for us assholes!" The party is still hovering around just 15 people but it's kind of hopping. Beth Cohen, Nolan's communications intern, told me she likes Nolan because, "while she comes off as really tough, she's not one to dig her heels in. She will always reach across the aisle and come to a solution." Ooh! Barbara Roberts (Oregon's only female governor, 1991-95) is here! (GP)

Leaving Amanda Fritz's party: Going from Fritz's party (no alcohol was served) to Jefferson Smith's is like crossing the Berlin Wall. (JH)

Novick/Stacey party 9:45 pm: As election results continue to roll in, Bob Stacey says he and Steve Novick will continue to party. “I hope we can be a refuge for people battered and beaten in the other elections,” said Stacey. Well-said. I think there might be a few of those nearby. (NG)

From the Mercury Vulture's Lair: Nathan just sent in this pic of Steve Novick reveling in his win.

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That is the sheen of victory, my friends! BOW BEFORE IT!!! (WSH)

AG RACE Ellen Rosenblum party 9:24 pm With no Republican candidate in the general election, Rosenblum told me she was "cautiously optimistic" about the election. And with current AG John Kroger stepping down early to run Reed College, Rosenblum is likely to be appointed to the post early. Rosenblum brushed off suggestions that her victory sends a message to those seeking to undermine medical marijuana laws. "It's actually a health care law," she said. (JT)

Mary Nolan party 9:10 pm Uncencorsed Kanye West "Better, Faster, Stronger." I can dig it. "Damn they don't make 'em like this anymore/I ask cause I'm not sure/Do anybody make real shit anymore?"—Mary Nolan for City Commissioner, 2012. These guys are having fun with fashion! (GP)

Amanda Fritz party 9:16 pm: Fritz says her plan for the runoff is to keep doing her job and that what she's best at is interacting with the people. When asked how she will face the financial disadvantage against Nolan—Fritz is limiting contributions to just $50 per supporter while Nolan is taking any and all gifts—Fritz said she just can't ask people for money. And if that means she loses? So be it.

Novick/Stacey party 9:15 pm: It’s official (and not surprising). Both Steve Novick and Bob Stacey have won their respective elections. (If you forgot already: Novick ran for the city council seat long held by Randy Leonard, Stacey for Metro). The most current results have Novick with 73.45 percent of the votes cast so far, with Stacey taking 83.86 percent in his. Novick confessed he was a little annoyed Stacey took a greater percentage of his election’s votes than he took in his own. (NG)

AG RACE Dwight Holton's party 9:11 pm: We move downstairs at Spirit of 77 to hear Dwight Holton's concession speech, as his wife and children stand by him: "I'm so proud of what we did. We fight for people and stand up for people and be on their sides... thank you very, very much." Cheering by all. Chants of "Holton, Holton, Holton." (CF)

Continue reading »

Don't Forget! Election Party Live Blog Action TONIGHT!

Posted by Wm.™ Steven Humphrey on Tue, May 15, 2012 at 2:44 PM

THAT'S RIGHT! We're serious about covering the crap out of tonight's election results and parties. How do I know this? Erik Henriksen is wearing a tie. And in addition? The tie is not covered with Star Wars characters.

We'll be at all the parties! We'll be piping in with the latest results! And tomorrow when you wake up? You'll know more about tonight's election than any of your stupid, uninformed co-workers. Practice your smirk! You'll need it.

HOT LIVE BLOG ELECTION ACTION KICKS OFF RIGHT HERE AT 7 PM! (Results start coming in at 8.) BEEEE THERRRRRRRE.

See? Even the Hitler Youth voted.
  • See? Even the Hitler Youth voted.

Catching Up With Lunchtime Ballot-Droppers

Posted by Alex Zielinski on Tue, May 15, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Next to the ballot slot: This is not a mailbox
  • Next to the ballot slot: "This is not a mailbox"

Today, I used my lunch break to check up on last-minute Portlanders pitching in their votes at the Pioneer Square and Central Library drop-off sites. While a lot of people thought I was some crazy petitioner and ran, others took a second to explain their tardiness. The two leading answers: Procrastination and indecision.

"I'm just lazy," said one jovial voter. Another: "I wasn't sure about the mayoral race, so I waited. It was just as hard today as it was when the ballots were sent out." One guy said he had to call his mom, an out-of-state lawyer, to figure out who to vote for in the Attorney General race.

I ran into an elections staff member exchanging the ballot boxes at the library, who confirmed my belief that a ton of folks held out until today to vote. "The boxes are packed, they never filled up this fast before," she said. "It's such a huge increase in ballots."

On the way back to the office, I ran in to a cheery Jefferson Smith at the Stark St. food carts, making sure everyone had voted (and voted for him). When I asked what to expect at tonight's party? A good time, but—no cartwheels.

Are you one of those last-second voters? Get on over to a ballot drop site before 8 pm and make it happen. Stay tuned in to Blogtown for our minute-by-minute reporting on the election and candidate parties tonight!

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Terrible Piece of Shit Endorses Mitt Romney

Posted by Paul Constant on Tue, May 15, 2012 at 1:44 PM

From Fox News, of course:

Former President George W. Bush said Tuesday he is supporting Republican Mitt Romney's run for the White House.

"I'm for Mitt Romney," Bush told ABC News after he delivered a speech on human rights in Washington, D.C.

I don't suppose it should be any surprise that George W. Bush is endorsing Romney. Romney's team is lousy with former Bush aides and employees. His policy advisers are primarily from the Bush White House, his campaign is made up of Bush cronies, and his policies are all George W. Bush policies with a patina of teabagginess slopped over the top. Bush's endorsement is just the blood-red, oozing cherry perched at the top of the shit sundae.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Your Mercury-Approved Voting Cheat Sheet

Posted by Erik Henriksen on Mon, May 14, 2012 at 3:29 PM

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I don't always follow the Mercury's endorsements—this year, in at least one big race, I split from our guide (writing in "Robb Stark, King in the North" for mayor actually makes a lot of sense if you just think about it for a minute). That said, I generally find our picks to be pretty dead-on—our news team knows what they're doing. Because I rarely know what I'm doing, I usually wait to vote until pretty much the last minute (ballots are due tomorrow!), which means I just hastily filled out my ballot at my desk, and the whole time I was filling in SAT bubbles for various unchallenged judges I was thinking about whether I should have Koi Fusion for lunch instead of the crappy pasta I made last night. (IN THIS RACE, KOI FUSION IS THE CLEAR WINNER!)

Anyway, because I just consulted them and it took me a minute to find 'em, here are the Mercury endorsements, including some that didn't make it into our print edition. A simplified version is below. And here's a list of ballot drop-off sites. I will never tire of the fact that you can vote at McDonald's, because yay for America.

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Are You Man Enough For "The Romney"?

Posted by Dan Savage on Mon, May 14, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Ordering info here.

New OPB Poll: Big Gain for Hales, Modest Gain for Smith, Big Drop for Brady

Posted by Denis C. Theriault on Mon, May 14, 2012 at 12:44 PM

The freshest public poll yet in the Portland mayor's race holds some lousy news for Eileen Brady's mayoral campaign a day before voting stops.

Remember that Oregonian/KGW poll last week that everyone called an "outlier" because it put Brady in third place behind Charlie Hales and Jefferson Smith? A survey from OPB released today pretty much affirms that result—which has to be a dispiriting trend for a campaign that's raised, and then spent, more than a million bucks.

Since the last OPB poll done at the end of April, Brady's number has fallen seven points. Meanwhile, Hales saw a surge that same size, while Smith also saw a four-point bump. Hales and Smith are starting to cement their status as the two candidates most likely to make the November runoff—although Brady isn't so far behind, under the poll's 4.9 percent margin of error, that she can't technically manage to squeak into the runoff.

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Where Brady finishes (assuming she won't place first, but also remembering what"they" say about assumptions...) will be as big a story as who finishes first in the mayoral race. Even placing second will be seen by some observers as a loss, given Brady's overwhelming cash advantage when it comes to getting her message out. That'll mean a few things: She didn't have a message, or one that voters liked. Or that her campaign didn't do a good job selling the message she had. Or, that, you know, Portlanders still don't much like over-the-top big-money candidates.

In the other big contested city race, the poll notes that incumbent Commissioner Amanda Fritz's lead over State Representative Mary Nolan is all but unchanged since the last one, growing by a single, irrelevant percentage point.

Who do you think will win and how? Vote in our super unscientific accurate, statistically spot-on, and completely scientific poll! Defend your choices in the comments. UPDATE 12:48 PM: My boss threatened to fire me if I didn't correct the characterization of our poll to the "truth." Sigh.

Rand Paul on President Obama's Marriage Equality Statement: "I Wasn't Sure That His Views on Marriage Could Get Any Gayer"

Posted by Paul Constant on Mon, May 14, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Of course bigoted piece of shit Rand Paul is saying this right behind a big old Christian cross:

What a creep.

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Friday, May 11, 2012

Swiss Miss No More?

Posted by Paul Constant on Fri, May 11, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Michele Bachmann has withdrawn her dual Swiss citizenship, according to Devin Henry on Twitter.

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Hah! Your move, President Obama...if that is, indeed, your real name.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Donors Like It When President Obama Speaks His Conscience

Posted by Paul Constant on Thu, May 10, 2012 at 9:44 AM

The Obama campaign has been receiving a great outpouring of support, according to Buzzfeed:

After three years of political compromise on issues from health care reform to spending cuts, Obama delivered a surprise gift to what many of his core supporters view as the civil rights issue of the day, simply by saying what everyone assumed he believed. But the distinction between implying a change and saying it outright will more than symbolic in the crucial area of campaign fundraising. Already, gay donors, mostly men, reportedly constitute 1 in 6 of Obama’s top fundraisers known as bundlers. And in the first 90 minutes after the news broke Wednesday, the campaign received $1 million in spontaneous contributions, a Democrat told BuzzFeed.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Guess Where Mitt Romney Stands on Gay Marriage?

Posted by Paul Constant on Wed, May 9, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Mitt Romney, unsurprisingly, has come out against gay marriage:

Mitt Romney says he believes marriage should be restricted to one man and one woman and that he's held that view "since running for office."

Romney on Wednesday called same sex-marriage "a very tender and sensitive topic" as he contrasted his position with President Barack Obama's unequivocal declaration of support Wednesday for allowing same-sex couples to marry.

This does seem to be true. While Romney often claimed to be in favor of gay rights while running for Senate in 1994 and for governor of Massachusetts in 2002, he has never supported gay marriage. So, um, yay for him, I guess, for having one issue he hasn't waffled on. Here he is this morning, talking about how he's in favor of extending many of the rights granted to married couples—"hospital visitation rights and the like"—to same sex couples, but admitting that he is not a supporter of "civil unions, if they're identical to marriage other than by name."

"OBAMA FLIP FLOPS, DECLARES WAR ON MARRIAGE"

Posted by Paul Constant on Wed, May 9, 2012 at 1:29 PM

This is the real headline on Fox Nation right now:

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Man, I can't wait to see what the Romney campaign's response to all this will be.

UPDATE: Glad I took a screenshot; they've already changed the headline. The new headline is a slightly more tasteful "OBAMA FLIP FLOPS ON GAY MARRIAGE." Way to flip flop on your headline, Fox.

Greens to Eileen Brady and Jefferson Smith: A Pox on Both Your Houses!

Posted by Denis C. Theriault on Wed, May 9, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Remember my column last week on how internal tensions over mayoral picks were roiling the Portland Green Party—with Jefferson Smith backers hoping to get the party to redo a consensus vote that ranked him third behind Eileen Brady (no. 2) and Cameron Whitten (no. 1) on the party's endorsement list?

The party got together last night and apparently sent a fairly blunt message: A pox on both your houses—let's stop this infighting.

In another consensus vote, members decided to withdraw endorsements for both Brady and Smith, leaving Whitten, the young activist with Occupy ties, as their only preferred candidate. Whitten announced the news in a press release, and I've since confirmed the decision with other Green Party members. Here's how Whitten cast it:

The Portland Green Party convened a meeting last night, to officially strip their endorsements of Mayoral candidates Eileen Brady and Jefferson Smith for the May 15th Primary. They maintained their endorsement of Cameron Whitten for Mayor of Portland. The decision was unanimous.

The re-vote came after a long time of speculation, with Smith supporters attempting to pressure the local chapter nominate the State Representative over New Seasons co-founder Eileen Brady.

Apparently, the Green Party did not react positively to politics as usual, which led the chapter to avoid the divisive political manipulations altogether by recalling both of their nominations.

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AG Candidate's Stance on Medicinal Pot Pays Off Handsomely

Posted by Denis C. Theriault on Wed, May 9, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Ellen Rosenblum's embrace of the medicinal pot community—increasingly a centerpiece in her run to serve as Oregon's next attorney general—is looking increasingly shrewd (at least, tactically) with less than a week to go before ballots are due.

Drug Policy Action, a national group that helped lobby for Oregon's 1998 medicinal pot law, just announced a $70,000 contribution, saying Rosenblum "supports the rights of Oregonians who are medical marijuana patients to have safe and legal access to their medicine." That cash will go a long way toward helping Rosenblum afford a statewide ad campaign, and it would come on top of pro-Rosenblum ads sponsored by other pro-pot groups, including the American Victory Coalition. The gift also comes as polls in the race, reported by the Oregonian last night, show what's, essentially, a statistical dead-heat (or maybe a slight-to-decent Rosenblum lead.

Pot's become one of the few issues clearly separating Rosenblum from her only rival in the race, former acting US Attorney Dwight Holton. Holton, in his federal job, earned the ire of medicinal pot advocates by targeting pot growers and then fanned those flames out on the stump when he called Oregon's pot laws a "trainwreck." Rosenblum, seizing on the political opportunity created by that rage, has promised to rank enforcement of mere pot possession lower on her list of priorities.

Still, obligatory words of support for Rosenblum aside, you can't help but get the sense that the pot community would support anyone who wasn't Holton. The statement from DPA announcing the gift spends more time warning voters about Holton.

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